It has been brought to my attention that I may be a tad on the optimistic side of finding something to cheer about regarding the Leones’ recent inconsistent play. I have pointed out a couple of times, ¨we may be losing but look at this +20 differential!¨– which is great but may not be telling the whole picture.

Differentials

A single game, or a single three-game sample, can have a massive effect on a team’s differential. For example, take a look at our last three games versus the Tigres– this small sample size adds +11 to our season’s differential, a single game adds +7.

Do I still think that looking at a team’s differential is the best indicator of how that team is doing through the season? Yes, but it’s also important to look at the team’s L10, last 3 games, and other stats to better understand how the team is doing.

So let’s see how the Leones are doing through the first 15 games

 In the Mexican League, the top four finishers in each zone automatically qualify for the post-season; however, if the fifth-place team in a zone finishes three or fewer games back of the fourth-place team, that fifth-place team qualifies as a wild card and plays the fourth-place team in a single game playoff. So let’s take a look at the teams that make the cut for the playoffs so far this season.

[team_standings 876]

The Leones winning percentage makes them tied for first, but they have played fewer games than the Diablos, so this sets the Leones firmly in second place– the makeup games are scheduled to be included in their next series against the Pirates De Campeche. So, whos the better team? The team with the largest differential? The team with more wins?

Lets take a look at the L10 and Strk stats

Single games or single three games series’ can skew the differential stat. This is why supplemental stats give a better view of how a team is doing in any given period.

This is where the L10 and Strk stats come into play. We can see above the Diablos have won 7 of their last 3 games and are on a 3 game winning streak with a differential of +6; indicating to me that Diff number should be a pretty solid indicator of how the team is doing since they’ve won more than they lost in the previous ten games. Still, they haven’t driven in a huge amount of runs in those victories, or the differential would be higher. As a fan, if I would go back to see their score for the past 10 games, I would expect to see the Diablos winning by 2 or 3 runs a game and losing by a small margin in those 3 games they lost, which would make sense.

The Leones have the exact opposite situation of the Diablos– they’ve lost 6 out of their last 10 games and have a Diff of +21, which indicates what? Well, let’s look at the scores of a few of those victories and see…

Is this what you could expect? Huge runs in the games they’ve won? To me, this screams inconsistency; it would be different if the Leones had the L10 of the Diablos with a differential of +20, this would mean they are consistently putting up big numbers against teams; but to score 6-9 runs for four games and then lose the other 6? that screams inconsistent play to me. Thanks to the commenter who brought this to my attention and made me look deeper at these stats!

Now, this leads me to the next topic, why are the Leones inconsistent– is it the offense, the defense, error, does god himself hate us?

Why the Leones are inconsistant.

How do you score runs in baseball? You bat. How can we go from scoring 7 runs to scoring 2 the very next day? Is the pitching that dominates that our lineup can not hit the ball? Is our baserunning terrible? What is happening with the Leones comparable to the game being played in the states where batters no longer go to bat to make hits but slug away for home runs?

That topic will require a more deep-dive into stats than I’m prepared for, but I wonder what I would find? Our W-L record at home is the best in the league, so maybe this is only an issue on the road? On the other hand, it is only 15 games into the season, so maybe way too early for this type of deep-dive when they may not even be an issue– let’s hope that the team gets back to firing on all cylinders we were to start the season.

2 thoughts on “A clarification on differentials and inconsistent play”
  1. But…. looking at the Playoff Position Teams table, I notice that the Diablos are +6 Diff through 16 games which seems to suggest that some of those wins could have gone either way, whereas the +23 for the Leones means there were some decisive (though inconsistent) wins. Plus a L1 doth not a streak make (cant extrapolate from single data point to suggest a trend). As an analyst (who knows almost nothing about the great science of baseball stats), I would say the difference (not Diff) between 1&2 is a lot closer and you could make a case (being a homey and all) the Leones should be on top of that leaderboard. My original point was context is everything and when I see the Diff in that context, I would suggest the Leones are pretty solidly up at the top with the Diablos.

    Look forward to the discussion on consistency.

    On an unrelated note, are there no local TV channels carrying the games?

    1. Hey David, not that I know of but if you follow my Facebook page I post streams of the game— on away games you can usually search for the team on YouTube to find the stream and home games the streams are on the Leones Facebook page.

      On to stats, I’m not an expert or someone that goes that into stats ( at least not before I started following the team after moving here) but I would rather have a team with an L10 of 7-4 with a Diff of +6 than what we have; an L10 of 4-6 and a Diff of +23.

      Baseball games usually don’t have those dominating performances or lopsided victories within the same division, I would say most games end in a Diff between 1-3, so a Diff of +6 and taking into account their last 10 record would indicate to me consistent winning. I guess all these stats we are talking about should be used in conjunction with one another.

      Ok, this is my bad and I should have noticed it. I failed to update our winning percentage it should be .600 so our standing makes even more sense now.

      If you are interested in seeing a breakdown of average scoring in the MLB, check out Hey David, not that I know of but if you follow my Facebook page I post streams of the game— on away games you can usually search for the team on YouTube to find the stream and home games the streams are on the Leones Facebook page.

      On to stats, I’m not an expert or someone that goes that into stats ( at least not before I started following the team after moving here) but I would rather have a team with an L10 of 7-4 with a Diff of +6 than what we have; an L10 of 4-6 and a Diff of +23.

      Baseball games usually don’t have those dominating performances or lopsided victories within the same division, I would say most games end in a Diff between 1-3, so a Diff of +6 and taking into account their last 10 record would indicate to me consistent winning. I guess all these stats we are talking about should be used in conjunction with one another.

      Ok, this is my bad and I should have noticed it. I failed to update our winning percentage it should be .600 so our standing makes even more sense now.

      If you are interested, as an analyst, to see the breakdown of average MLB scores check out this https://www.somesolvedproblems.com/2019/08/what-are-most-common-scores-in-baseball.html

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